Ken Paxton’s chances of beating John Cornyn in Texas Senate primary: Poll

The latest Texas Public Opinion Research poll highlights a highly unsettled Republican Senate primary between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Cornyn holding 32 percent support to Paxton’s 26 percent, but nearly a third of voters still undecided. This large pool of undecided voters makes the race fluid, with experts noting that the eventual outcome will hinge on how these voters break once the campaigns intensify. While Republicans maintain a modest lead over Democrats in a hypothetical general election matchup, the narrow margin suggests that a divisive GOP primary could make the 2026 race more competitive than usual in Texas. Cornyn’s appeal rests on his record as an experienced conservative senator, while Paxton is banking on his ties to Donald Trump and his “America First” message. For Democrats, figures like Beto O’Rourke and Jasmine Crockett show potential but lack clear dominance, leaving the field open as both parties prepare for what could be one of Texas’ most closely watched Senate contests in decades.